In early September, the Kursk operation remained a highly discussed topic on Russian social media. This was largely due to the announced counteroffensive actions of the Russian Armed Forces and promises to quickly push the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of Russian territory. User engagement peaked on September 11, with relevant Telegram posts receiving over 8 million views in a single day. However, by September 13, as reports emerged about a new breach of the Russian border and the potential encirclement of Russian attacking forces, interest in the Kursk operation sharply declined. By the end of September, while discussions about battles in the Kursk region persisted, they no longer garnered peak views or priority attention from Russian users.
The topic of a new wave of forced mobilization in Russia also gained substantial traction on social media among Russian users in September. The Kursk operation itself, along with the lack of progress from the Russian military in this theater of war, highlighted issues related to personnel shortages, leading to widespread discussion. One peak of attention occurred on September 5, when Dmitry Peskov stated that ‘new mobilization in Russia is not being discussed,’ resulting in 1 million views of relevant posts in a day. The highest spike for September was noted on the 16th, when Vladimir Putin signed a decree to increase the Russian Armed Forces’ personnel to 1.5 million. Consequently, the number of views on mobilization-related publications the following day approached 4 million.
Another significant topic that stirred the Russian information space in September was the mass drone strikes by Ukraine deep within Russian territory, coupled with the possibility of increased these strikes due to the supply of Western long-range weaponry to Ukraine. The peak of discussions and views on relevant posts occurred on September 6, with nearly 6 million mentions and reactions following NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s statement that Ukraine has the right to self-defense ‘which does not end at the border’ with Russia.
The study also reveals a trend of significant fluctuations in social sentiments among Russian citizens, closely tied to the dynamics of the military-political situation in the Russian Federation. The sentiment scale among readers of leading Z-channels, reflected in comments mentioning the word ‘war,’ indicated that out of over 20,000 such comments published in September, 70% carried a sharply negative tone.
Another crucial indicator is that out of more than 200,000 comments in social media throughout September mentioning Vladimir Putin, over 60% were negative. This is evidently a consequence of both the ongoing full-scale war and the Kursk operation, as well as the kinetic effects of the conflict spilling over into a broader territory of Russia. It is important to continue monitoring the dynamics of these sentiments and reactions, as they touch upon two fundamental indicators: the routinisation of war for the Russian populace and the sacrality of Vladimir Putin’s personal authority. Both indicators are interrelated and crucial for the future trajectory of the Russian-Ukrainian war.
