A failed coup in Sudan will disrupt Russia's international trade logistics.
Moscow has been terrorizing African continent for quite a long period of time already, with the help of Wagner’s private military company mercenaries. Since February 2022, several African nations have fallen within Russia's hybrid military-political sphere of influence. Libya, Mali, the Central African Republic, Congo, Burkina Faso, and Sudan are all sources of precious metals and logistical hubs for Russian geopolitical adventures. The close collaboration between Russians and African dictators, their support, and joint terrorism are part of the Kremlin's subversive strategy to undermine the international order.
Sudan has been the main base for expanding Russian influence in Africa. Khartoum is once again engulfed in a power struggle between the formal leader, Fattah al-Burhan, the head of the armed forces, and his deputy, Hamdan Daglo, the commander of the Rapid Support Forces. Most of the weapons in the country are of Russian or Soviet origin. In late 2022, Burhan refused to hand over some military equipment to the Russians for the war in Ukraine. Kremlin is likely banking on his opponent Daglo. Since the Meroe Gold company controlled the export of gold from Sudan for a long time and used its territory to expand its presence throughout the continent, the outcome of the conflict will determine Moscow's role in Africa for the next decade.
The Sudanese crisis is pushing central players in the region to take control of the political establishment in Khartoum. Egypt and Saudi Arabia are working on limiting Russian influence and expelling Wagner mercenaries from the continent. Neighbouring countries must prevent Russian military presence in Port Sudan on the Red Sea coast and localize political instability sources. The long-term regional interests of Cairo and Riyadh in Sudan sharply contrast with the intentions of Russia, which undermine stability on the African continent.