Analytics — IKAR Think Tank

Russia Faces Domestic Resilience Challenges Ahead of Elections

Amid persistent military tensions, several sensitive issues in Russia are converging into a broader agenda affecting domestic resilience. Expectations of mobilization are sustaining high levels of public anxiety, while the fuel crisis is increasing socioeconomic pressure. Against this backdrop, the upcoming elections are becoming a key test of the Russian state’s ability to maintain social…

Sep 9, 2026

Russia Faces Domestic Resilience Challenges Ahead of Elections

Analytics

Building a Nation Under Arms: Russia From Mobilization to Military Socialisation

Russia’s substantial wartime losses and declining effectiveness of contract-based recruitment raise growing questions about its ability to sustain the front’s manpower needs without renewed mass mobilization. IKAR’s study examines Russia’s available and emerging mechanisms for replenishing military personnel, public attitudes toward mass mobilization and its potential political consequences, and the feasibility of various mobilization scenarios.…

Sep 2, 2026

Building a Nation Under Arms: Russia From Mobilization to Military Socialisation

Analytics

The Fuel Crisis in Russia as a Factor in Destabilizing the War Economy

Transformation of the Fuel Crisis into a Systemic Challenge Monitoring of the Russian information space during the period from 29 June to 20 July 2026 indicates a further escalation of the fuel crisis and its transition from a regional issue into a systemic challenge affecting the Russian Federation’s rear-area support system. While at the end…

Jul 23, 2026

The Fuel Crisis in Russia as a Factor in Destabilizing the War Economy

Analytics

Managed Shortage: War in Everyday Life

Summary Monitoring of Russian sources for the period 15–29 June 2026 shows that the fuel shortage is emerging as a new stage in a broader campaign of pressure on Russia’s rear. Fuel disruptions are increasingly shifting the consequences of the war from the realm of abstract political developments into everyday life. Isolated shortages are gradually…

Jul 1, 2026

Analytics

Russians’ Perception of the Fuel Crisis: Early June 2026 Trends

Executive Summary Monitoring of the Russian information space during 8–14 June 2026 indicates a gradual increase in the war’s impact on the everyday lives of Russian citizens. A key driver of this process has been the systematic targeting of Russia’s fuel, energy, and logistics infrastructure, resulting in localized and regional fuel shortages, mobility restrictions, transportation…

Jun 18, 2026

Russians’ Perception of the Fuel Crisis: Early June 2026 Trends

Analytics

Election and Post Election Day in Armenia: Russian information influence and framing

Executive Summary On the day of Armenia’s parliamentary elections, debate focused on two core issues: the legitimacy of the government and the country’s sovereignty in shaping its future. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his government emphasized anti-corruption measures, efforts to prevent vote-buying, and tighter oversight of the electoral process. They also framed the election as…

Jun 9, 2026

Election and Post Election Day in Armenia: Russian information influence and framing

Analytics

Russian FIMI in the Armenian Elections

Overview of Recent Trends Ahead of Armenia’s parliamentary elections, the information environment surrounding the country shows signs of an intensifying and increasingly sophisticated Russian influence campaign. This campaign extends beyond traditional information and propaganda tools, encompassing a broader combination of media, economic, political, and institutional pressure. For Moscow, these elections are significant not only as…

Jun 3, 2026

Analytics

Russian Influence on the 2026 Elections in Armenia: Main Approaches and Risks

Executive Summary The parliamentary elections in Armenia, scheduled for June 7, 2026, are becoming another testing ground for Russia to apply its influence instruments previously deployed during the elections in Georgia and Moldova in 2024–2025. The core elements of this strategy include the exploitation of fear of war, the promotion of frozen conflict narratives, particularly…

May 12, 2026

Russian Influence on the 2026 Elections in Armenia: Main Approaches and Risks

Analytics

System of Sanctions Evasion: IKAR’s Investigation

From “Shadow” to “State”: The True Nature of Russia’s Maritime Sanctions Evasion System The IKAR investigation series sequel demonstrates that the “shadow fleet” is not an incidental or unintended byproduct of sanctions policy. Rather, it constitutes a deliberate, integrated element of Russia’s state economic and security strategy. Its operations systematically undermine the effectiveness of the…

Apr 27, 2026

System of Sanctions Evasion: IKAR’s Investigation

Analytics

Russian Propaganda Analysis: Nov 1-15, 2025

Key Information Trends in Russian Telegram Propaganda, Early November. The information landscape surrounding Russia’s war against Ukraine continues to reveal a widening gap between battlefield reality and the narratives promoted by the Kremlin. Two major developments in early November illustrate how Russian state institutions increasingly prioritize perception management over operational transparency or accountability. Following successful…

Nov 21, 2025

Russian Propaganda Analysis: Nov 1-15, 2025