SOVEREIGN ECONOMY: TOP EVENTS OF THE WEEK
07/07/2023, 13:00
The exchange rate of the ruble has steadily declined throughout the week. On Thursday, the dollar rose to 93.76 rubles/$1, and the euro was priced at 102.0075 rubles/EUR. The value of the dual-currency basket ($0.55 and EUR 0.45) has increased by 2.83 rubles to reach 97.43 rubles. A wide range of fundamental factors influences the rapid weakening of the ruble's position. Some experts speculate that the devaluation of the ruble is a deliberate policy of the Central Bank, carried out in the interests of the federal budget (although the Central Bank denies this version).
The Kremlin threatens to withdraw from the "grain deal," which expires on July 17. Moscow has been demanding a resolution to the "five systemic tasks" starting from the end of May, the fulfilment of which is purportedly a condition for continuing the deal: reconnecting "Rosselkhozbank" to SWIFT; spare parts for agricultural machinery, the revival of the ammonia pipeline "Tolyatti-Odessa"; transportation logistics and insurance; and asset unfreezing.
Russia will voluntarily reduce oil supplies to the oil markets by 500,000 barrels per day by cutting exports by the designated amount in August. Alexander Novak, Vice Prime Minister of Russia, announced this to journalists. The Vice Prime Minister's office confirmed that additionally, Russia will reduce oil production by 500,000 barrels per day from August.
Russian debts to banks have reached 30 trillion rubles. The total debt of Russians to credit organizations reached 30.22 trillion rubles as of May 1, compared to 27.8 trillion rubles at the end of the first quarter. The average household credit debt increased to 509.6 thousand rubles. Russians' indebtedness level has risen to 41% compared to 35% at the beginning of the year.
"Gazprom" has threatened to sever any cooperation with Kyiv over arbitration proceedings. Alexey Miller, the Chairman of the Management Board of the Russian gas monopoly, states to the journalists that the ongoing attempts of Ukrainian Naftogaz to engage in arbitration proceedings with Gazprom are fraught with the imposition of sanctions by the Russian Federation and the cessation of gas transit.
