Analytics — IKAR Think Tank

Architecture of Russian Unmanned Expansion

This analytical assessment documents the systemic transformation of Russian Federation unmanned aerial incursions over NATO and EU sovereign airspace between 2022 and 2026. Empirical evidence demonstrates that these unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) sorties can no longer be characterized as sporadic anomalies or unintentional navigational deviations. Instead, they represent an integrated, state-directed military intelligence doctrine that…

Sep 20, 2026

Architecture of Russian Unmanned Expansion

Analytics

Political Control Ahead of Russia’s Elections Extends Beyond the Anti-War Agenda

Russia’s political system is approaching the elections amid accumulated social tension and frustration. The continuation of the war sustains a high level of uncertainty, the prospect of a new wave of mobilization remains a sensitive issue, and worsening economic expectations are increasingly affecting Russians’ everyday lives. Rising prices, expensive loans, pressure on the state budget,…

Sep 14, 2026

Political Control Ahead of Russia’s Elections Extends Beyond the Anti-War Agenda

Analytics

International Observers as a Mechanism of Electoral Legitimation in Russia

The use of foreign nationals presented by Russian officials and state media as “international observers” or “experts” has become a regular feature of efforts to legitimize Russian elections. Unlike professional monitoring missions, which follow established methodologies and assess the entire electoral cycle, these observers often make short visits, attend a limited number of polling stations,…

Sep 11, 2026

International Observers as a Mechanism of Electoral Legitimation in Russia

Analytics

Russia Faces Domestic Resilience Challenges Ahead of Elections

Amid persistent military tensions, several sensitive issues in Russia are converging into a broader agenda affecting domestic resilience. Expectations of mobilization are sustaining high levels of public anxiety, while the fuel crisis is increasing socioeconomic pressure. Against this backdrop, the upcoming elections are becoming a key test of the Russian state’s ability to maintain social…

Sep 9, 2026

Russia Faces Domestic Resilience Challenges Ahead of Elections

Analytics

Building a Nation Under Arms: Russia From Mobilization to Military Socialisation

Russia’s substantial wartime losses and declining effectiveness of contract-based recruitment raise growing questions about its ability to sustain the front’s manpower needs without renewed mass mobilization. IKAR’s study examines Russia’s available and emerging mechanisms for replenishing military personnel, public attitudes toward mass mobilization and its potential political consequences, and the feasibility of various mobilization scenarios.…

Sep 2, 2026

Building a Nation Under Arms: Russia From Mobilization to Military Socialisation

Analytics

The Fuel Crisis in Russia as a Factor in Destabilizing the War Economy

Monitoring of the Russian information space during the period from 29 June to 20 July 2026 indicates a further escalation of the fuel crisis and its transition from a regional issue into a systemic challenge affecting the Russian Federation’s rear-area support system. While at the end…

Jul 23, 2026

The Fuel Crisis in Russia as a Factor in Destabilizing the War Economy

Analytics

Managed Shortage: War in Everyday Life

Monitoring of Russian sources for the period 15–29 June 2026 shows that the fuel shortage is emerging as a new stage in a broader campaign of pressure on Russia’s rear. Fuel disruptions are increasingly shifting the consequences of the war from the realm of abstract political developments into everyday life. Isolated shortages are gradually…

Jul 1, 2026

Analytics

Russians’ Perception of the Fuel Crisis: Early June 2026 Trends

Monitoring of the Russian information space during 8–14 June 2026 indicates a gradual increase in the war’s impact on the everyday lives of Russian citizens. A key driver of this process has been the systematic targeting of Russia’s fuel, energy, and logistics infrastructure, resulting in localized and regional fuel shortages, mobility restrictions, transportation…

Jun 18, 2026

Russians’ Perception of the Fuel Crisis: Early June 2026 Trends

Analytics

Election and Post Election Day in Armenia: Russian information influence and framing

On the day of Armenia’s parliamentary elections, debate focused on two core issues: the legitimacy of the government and the country’s sovereignty in shaping its future. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his government emphasized anti-corruption measures, efforts to prevent vote-buying, and tighter oversight of the electoral process. They also framed the election as…

Jun 9, 2026

Election and Post Election Day in Armenia: Russian information influence and framing

Analytics

Russian FIMI in the Armenian Elections

Ahead of Armenia’s parliamentary elections, the information environment surrounding the country shows signs of an intensifying and increasingly sophisticated Russian influence campaign. This campaign extends beyond traditional information and propaganda tools, encompassing a broader combination of media, economic, political, and institutional pressure. For Moscow, these elections are significant not only as…

Jun 3, 2026