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    SOCIOLOGICAL RESEARCH "MIRROR OF RUSSIA" - THREE YEARS OF FULL-SCALE WAR

    24/02/2025, 07:00

    Russians are very sensitive to the acceleration of inflation and mostly do not feel the danger of an attack by NATO

    The Institute for Conflict Studies and Analysis of Russia (IKAR) conducted a sociological study dedicated to the third anniversary of the full-scale invasion as part of the monitoring of Russian society called the "Mirror of Russia". From January 9 to January 22, 2025, a study was conducted on an all-Russian sample. The survey method is CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interview), namely a telephone survey by interactive structured questionnaire using special software for sociological surveys. A total of 1,600 respondents were interviewed. The statistical error with a probability of 0.95 does not exceed 2.5%.

    Main results of the survey:

    1. The absolute majority of Russians feel the acceleration of inflation - 94% of respondents answered that they experienced it during their everyday purchases. The majority of respondents (69%) also stated that their ability to purchase goods and services has decreased over the past six months. Also, more than half of Russians predict a further decrease in their purchasing power in 2025.

    2. 41% of Russians would like the war to end within a few months or up to six months. Only 13% are in favor of "SMO" without time limitations. This share has not changed for two years.

    3. Three-quarters (75%) of Russian society opposes the second wave of forced mobilization. Compared to last year, this share has not changed much. Young Russians (18–30 years old) are particularly critical of this - among them, the number of opponents of mobilization reaches 81%.

    4. The share of Russians who have mobilized and died in the war is constantly growing. By the third anniversary of Russia's full-scale attack on Ukraine, the share of respondents with several mobilized relatives reached 17%, and the share with several mobilized friends reached 19%. Among those surveyed who have someone been mobilized since the invasion began, more than 70% have someone who was killed in action.

    5. By the third anniversary of the full-scale attack, more than half of Russians (56%) believe that their army is primarily opposed by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which are supplied by Western countries. Half as many (26%) believe that the Russians are already directly at war with NATO. Compared to 2022, this is a fairly significant change in public sentiment, since then the distribution of responses between the two options was almost equal.

    6. The Russian population does not feel the danger that NATO countries may attack Russia - 57% of respondents share this sentiment. Instead, 40% have the opposite opinion. Among the countries of the Alliance, none received more than 30% of the vote as the most hostile to the Russian Federation. Great Britain (29%), Poland (28%), and the USA (25%) were mentioned relatively more frequently.

    7. Almost three-quarters of Russians (71%) stated that their sense of personal security has not changed since Finland and Sweden joined NATO. 22% answered that this feeling worsened.

    For a detailed report, see the presentation.