Monitoring Russian Narratives Regarding Moldova: 12-18.05.2025

The Institute for Conflict Studies and Analysis of Russia, together with Watchdog MD, finished another weekly monitoring of Russian propaganda attempts to interfere in the electoral process in Moldova and its attempts to influence the domestic political situation in this country. This publication was produced with the financial support of the European Union and Equal Rights & Independent Media (ERIM). Its contents are the sole responsibility of IKAR-WatchDog.MD and do not necessarily reflect the views of the EU and ERIM.

The weekly monitoring report aims to study social media to identify key propaganda narratives, trending topics, active propagandists, and audience engagement statistics related to Moldova's political landscape. The data is collected from the Russian segment of Telegram using AI-powered tools and manual sampling.

Key findings for the period from 12 to 18 May 2025:

1. The increasingly aggressive promotion of false claims about the outbreak of a war on the Dniester clearly points to the existence of a disinformation campaign targeting not only the authorities in Chișinău and Kyiv but also the European Union. The spread of such fake news suggests that the Russian Federation may have prepared provocations in the Transnistrian region.

2. At the same time, the topic may also be linked to the ongoing peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, with Russian propaganda attempting to portray the authorities in Kyiv in the most negative light possible. This issue requires continued monitoring, especially given its rising intensity and the fact that it is being increasingly echoed by local politicians affiliated with the Kremlin.

3. In recent weeks, we have observed a steady promotion of the political bloc Alternativa within the Russian informational space. The Russian Federation’s attempts to portray one of the bloc’s leaders, Ion Ceban, as a pro-European politician who also upholds traditional (conservative) values are part of a strategy aimed at fragmenting the pro-European, undecided, or conservative electorate.

In addition to the network of parties coordinated by Ilan Șor, it is becoming increasingly clear that the Alternativa Bloc is also one of the Kremlin’s strategic bets in the run-up to the parliamentary elections on September 28. Thus, Moscow is aiming to secure an anti-European parliamentary majority that would serve the Kremlin’s interests and obstruct Moldova’s path toward European Union accession.

For a detailed report, see the presentation.